Read the previous two scatterthoughts before you read this, or it won’t make sense.
All good? All caught up? All right then.
All things being equal, it’s logical to assume that I would not be one of the theoretical 20 male auditioners to get selected for the play. However, if I had some reason to think that I was the best candidate for a role, then yeah, I’d probably get my hopes up. It could be considered logical to do so, as long as my reason was objectively valid. That is, of course, a big “if”.
On the flip side, there’s never any reason to get excited about the lottery until after you’ve won it. The odds don’t change, no matter how many tickets you buy.
What’s interesting is that everyone recognizes the balance on some level, and the question is how you respond to it. Do you accept the odds as they stand, or attempt to change them in your favour. But that’s a topic for another scatterthought.